Overview
The ADR Wales Education research programme has been developed to meet the needs of the education system in Wales. By working closely with the Welsh Government and other partners, the programme aims to produce robust, impactful evidence that supports policy makers and practitioners in making informed decisions.
ADR Wales programme for work in this area is supported by the WISERD Education Data Lab (WEDL). WEDL was established in March 2019 to deliver independent analysis of administrative education data to inform national debate on some of the most contemporary and pressing educational issues facing Wales.
With a particular focus on mainstream, compulsory education, the ADR Wales Education programme provides policymakers with the insight to make best placed decisions to support the education sector in Wales and the young people that it serves.
Our priority areas include understanding how well free school meals show changes in socioeconomic circumstances over time, looking at the ongoing effects of major curriculum reforms, exploring learners’ subject choices and progression, examining the impact of Additional Learning Needs reforms, and developing analysis of attendance data.
The academic lead for the ADR Wales Education programme is Professor Chris Taylor.
Priorities
Education in Wales has seen significant change since devolution with major reforms of the curriculum, additional learning needs, and the post-compulsory education system. This means the need for evidence, and the potential value of administrative data research, is incredibly important. These changes can create challenges in terms of the comparability of datasets and availability of attainment data which we will work with officials and the sector to address. Our work in this area will look:
Robustness of Free School Meals (FSM) as an indicator of socio-economic circumstances overtime: We are examining how well eligibility for free school meals reflects changes in pupils’ socioeconomic circumstances over time in the context of recent policy changes, to understand how reliable FSM is as a long-term indicator of disadvantage.
Ongoing impact of curricular reforms including the foundation phase and the new curriculum for Wales, and subject qualification reforms: We will explore the ongoing effects of major curriculum reforms in Wales – including the Foundation Phase, the new Curriculum for Wales, and qualification changes – to understand how these shifts influence learners’ experiences and outcomes.
Subject choices and progression of learners in Wales: We will analyse the factors that shape learners’ subject choices and how these decisions influence their educational pathways and progression throughout the Welsh education system.
The impact of Additional Learning Needs (ALN) reforms: This area focuses on understanding the impact of ALN reforms on learners, schools, and support systems, and how changes are affecting educational experiences and outcomes.
Innovative methodological analysis of attendance data: We will investigate new methodologies in understanding cycles and periods of absence for learners.
Projects
Robustness of Free School Meals (FSM) indicator as a measure of socio-economic circumstances over time
With changes to eligibility rules and use of Free School Meals (FSM) over time how reliable does FSM continue to play as an indicator of socio-economic circumstances? This project will utilise FSM data collected in schools, and Census data, building on previous work within the ADR-Wales Education Research Theme, that has considered associations between FSM and other socio-economic indicators, for example from the Millenium Cohort Study and Census 2011 data.
Curriculum change and the impact on learner outcomes
The Foundation Phase (FP) was fully rolled out in 2010/11, which means the first full cohort completed their GCSEs in 2020/21. However, as this was during the COVID-19 pandemic analysis needs to carefully consider what impact the FP has had on later outcomes. The new Curriculum for Wales was rolled out in 2022 and provides a significant change to systems and processes in Wales, including changes to examinations and assessment. It is important that education data is used to explore the implementation and long-term impact of these significant reforms.
Right place, right time, right support: exploring additional learning needs provision and educational outcomes in Wales
Understanding how additional learning needs provision supports the educational outcomes of those with health conditions is important for planning and implementing an effective support system. Research suggests that children with health conditions are more likely to experience negative education outcomes, including more exclusions, lower attendance, and poorer attainment. However, little is known about the importance of timing and implementation of support on educational outcomes.
Publications
Demonstrating the wider value of science education through linked data research
Science is often seen as a route into scientific careers. New linked data research from the ADR Wales Education team shows its benefits reach much further – into history and English literature too.
8,000+
pupils in a large-scale study linking education records
compared with later attainment in six popular post-16 subjects
The evidence gap
THE USUAL VIEW
Maths and English are widely used as key indicators of future success and are central to decisions about post-16 study.
THE QUESTION
Do the skills developed through science learning support achievement across a broader range of academic subjects?
Key findings
PREDICTING HISTORY AND ENGLISH LITERATURE
GCSE Science
Stronger
GCSE Mathematics
Science was a stronger predictor of later achievement in both subjects than maths.
PREDICTING HISTORY
Stronger
GCSE English or Welsh Language
Science predicted success in history more effectively than language GCSEs.
BEYOND STEM
Science success travels
Pupils who did well in GCSE
science were more likely to
achieve stronger grades in
humanities, not just science Alevels.
Why it matters
TRANSFERABLE SKILLS
Science education may foster skills that support achievement across a wide range of disciplines.
RETHINKING RECOGNITION
There may be opportunities to reconsider how science qualifications are recognised in progression frameworks and policy.
THE POWER OF LINKED DATA
Securely linked administrative data allowed the team to move beyond assumptions and build robust evidence about student success.
The ADR Wales Education team has brought attention to the wider benefits of science education through the publication of their most recent analysis looking at the value of science education. The work showcases how collaborative, evidence-led research can challenge established assumptions and inform education policy discussions in Wales and beyond.
For many years, educational policy and post-16 progression pathways have placed significant emphasis on attainment in mathematics and English. These subjects are frequently used as key indicators of future academic success and are often central to decisions about further study opportunities.
However, the ADR Wales Education team recognised an important evidence gap: while science education is commonly viewed as a route into scientific careers, less is known about whether the skills developed through science learning support achievement across a broader range of academic subjects.
The team set out to explore whether success in GCSE science could be linked to educational outcomes beyond the traditional STEM pathway. Drawing on ADR Wales’ expertise in securely linking and analysing administrative data, the research team conducted a large-scale study involving more than 8,000 pupils. By linking educational records, the teams were able to examine the relationship between performance in GCSE science at age 15 and subsequent attainment across six popular post-16 subjects; Mathematics, Biology, Chemistry, Physics, History and English Literature.
The analysis enabled the team to move beyond assumptions and generate robust evidence about the predictive value of science achievement for later academic success.
While it was expected that strong GCSE science performance would be associated with success in science-based A-level subjects, the findings revealed a much broader impact. The team discovered that pupils who achieved highly in GCSE science were also more likely to attain stronger grades in humanities subjects, including history and English literature.
Perhaps most strikingly, the research found that:
- GCSE science was a stronger predictor of later achievement in history and English literature than GCSE mathematics.
- GCSE science predicted success in history more effectively than GCSE English or Welsh language.
- The relationship between science attainment and future achievement extended well beyond STEM disciplines.
These findings challenge conventional perceptions of science as a subject valued primarily for its technical or vocational relevance.
The research provides compelling evidence that science education may foster valuable transferable skills that support achievement across a wide range of disciplines. The findings raise important questions about how educational achievement is measured and valued. If science attainment serves as a powerful indicator of wider academic potential, there may be opportunities to reconsider how science qualifications are recognised within progression frameworks and educational policy. This work demonstrates the value of linked administrative data in generating new insights into educational outcomes and challenging established assumptions. By uncovering evidence of the broader benefits of science education, the ADR Wales Education team has contributed to a more nuanced understanding of student success and the skills needed for lifelong learning.
Data Insight: Degree subjects of science teachers in Wales
Using linked administrative data from the School Workforce Annual Census (SWAC) and the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), this Data Insight explores the degree backgrounds of recently qualified science teachers in Wales. In doing so, it assesses alignment between undergraduate degree subject specialism and teaching allocation. These patterns are also explored according to the sex of teachers, the education level they teach at, the language-medium they teach in, and the geography of their school.
Data Insight: The science teaching workforce in Wales
This Data Insight provides an overview of the science teaching workforce in state-maintained secondary school in Wales as of 2021. Using administrative data from the School Workforce Annual Census (SWAC), it examines the proportion of the science teaching workforce who deliver individual subjects of science, biology, chemistry, and physics, and how they are distributed across sex, stage of education, language medium, and school geography. This provides evidence to inform discussions on workforce planning and distribution in compulsory and post-16 science education across Wales.